The DC Duo

What do you get when you combine a breakdown of the Washington Wizards' ticking time bomb of a back-court with bad puns? This week's Late Night Sleeper blog post!

Agent Hero?

Gilbert won me the week with his 16 assist outburst on Sunday, but let’s keep in mind that he’s putting up these numbers in the absence of John Wall, who is undoubtedly THE man on the team. When Wall comes back Gilbert’s numbers will decline, but I don’t expect them to plummet. The Wizards would love to trade Gilbert, but the dude has about as much trade value as a zip-lock bag full of celery sticks in a middle school cafeteria. That leaves the Wizards in a tough spot, they have no choice but to play him in a showcase role in hopes that another team will take the bait. Gilb is finally healthy and if we have learned anything over the past four years it is that he will feel entitled to demand shots and playing time whether he deserves it or not. There is literally not one thing to like about Gilbert’s game in terms of wins/losses for an NBA team, but for your fantasy team he can help in a big way, and he comes at a cheap price. If you drafted him late like I did, there’s not much downside.

Is John “About to Hit the Rookie” Wall?

I guess if we are talking about Gilbert we should also discuss what this means for John Wall. Wall is currently averaging 18, 4, 10 with over three steals a game, those numbers qualify him under Beast status in my book, but can he keep it up? I personally tend to avoid rookies in fantasy basketball because I have a hard time seeing Wall make it through the entire season at this pace. There’s a big difference between a college schedule and the grueling 82 game NBA marathon season. Can you remember who the hot rookie to own was a year ago today? It was Brandon Jennings, who got off to a blazing start last year, averaging 22 ppg with 6 dimes in the first month of the season. For the next four months Jennings steadily declined while absolutely murdering his fantasy owners’ field goal percentage, dropping as low as .311 from the field last February. I wouldn’t expect that dramatic of a fall for Wall because he’s simply better than Jennings is and ever will be, but Wall is also currently sporting a walking boot because of a bum ankle. If I owned him I’d undoubtedly be selling high and going after a big name player with less risk.

It's Not All Smiles

So let’s flip things around this week and talk about the dudes you DON’T want on your team. Some of the following opinions may be colored by my own personal feelings about these guys, but I’ll try to keep it civil and at least somewhat related to fantasy basketball.

Rashard Lewis- Not only do I hate Rashard Lewis as a player, but in this case he actually sucks in fantasy basketball too! The funny thing is the Magic also have Ryan Anderson, who plays the same position, plays the exact same game, doesn’t defend either, but makes about $100 million less than Rashard. Everyone laughed when the Magic gave Lewis a max deal but he was able to at least partially live up to it for the first couple years, but the Magic are still just the 3^rd best team in the East (like they always are) and Rashard looks worse and worse every day. If you own him I’d doubt you could trade him for anything valuable at this point, my advice would be to wait until he strings together 3 or 4 good games (which may or may not happen) and then try to pawn him off for another guy’s 6^th or 7^th best guy. Good luck with that.

Tim Duncan- His fantasy game is about as bland as his personality and the name just doesn’t live up to expectations anymore. I have nothing but respect for Duncan (other than the fact that he is the biggest whiner in the NBA) but he’s just too old to consistently put up big numbers, and there really isn’t any incentive for him to try. The Spurs will make the playoffs and that is when Duncan will step his game up, until then he will coast, and that is just about the last thing you are looking for from a high round pick in fantasy basketball.

Blake Griffin- Ok so maybe it is surprising to see him on this list, but it is for an entirely different reason than the other players I’m talking about. I actually happen to love Blake Griffin, as does everyone else, the dude can jump out of the gym and he rebounds like a rabid beast, but the bottom line is that his fantasy value really isn’t particularly high. 16 points and 10 rebounds a game is nice, but aside from that Griffin brings absolutely nothing to the table and he’s a total liability at the free throw line. If you own him you were probably ecstatic after the first week of the season, but it is time to sell high while you still can. Give another Blake Griffin lover a whiff of his manly pheromones and rob that owner of one of his elite guys. Do it now, add in another one of your fringe starters and you might still be able to get a big name player that contributes in more categories.

An extra word of advice about injured players- Drop them! If you are currently holding on to a dude like Greg Oden or Andrew Bynum then shame on you for drafting their crippled rear-ends, it is time to cut your losses. Never draft injured guys with the plan to stash them for the long haul, it simply doesn’t pay off. In the meantime other owners are using those bench spots to pick up legit players that actually make it onto the court and you are missing out on the waiver wire gold.

Who's That Dude?

Tip of the Week: Have you ever noticed that trades tend to come in bunches? Pay attention, next time you see a name like Wade, Durant, or Nowitzki dealt in your league, invariably within the next 24 hours two other owners will pull the trigger on a smaller trade. It is as if a big trade opens the flood gates and gives license to the rest of the league to make their own moves. So let’s take advantage of one of the easily manipulated owners in your league (you know who they are, and if you don’t, look in the mirror buddy). Say you’ve been working on trading for David Lee but you can’t get the other guy to pull the trigger. Wait for the next trade to go through, and then offer to add one of your bench guys with “upside” to the mix, if you do it right a lot of the time you can seal the deal with a player you recently picked up off the waiver wire.

Here are some buy-low guys that you should be trying this move on

Nene- A minor groin injury and a couple bad games don’t scare me much, but they do scare the trigger happy owner that already feels like he wasted a pick on the sometimes injury prone center. Make your move now; his price will only get higher.

Steve Nash- Even if Nash can’t repeat last year’s numbers, he is definitely going to average more than the 7.2 assists per game he is currently putting up.

And here are some actual sleepers, including the random dude I chose as the cover man for this post

Tony Douglas- He is a true “Late Round Sleeper” that meets all our qualifications.

1) No one has heard of the dude.

2) He plays for the Knicks or Warriors (fantasy sleeper goldmines).

3) He’s getting minutes

Douglas is averaging 22 ppg over the last three games and filling up the stat sheet across the board, he is only owned in 20% of ESPN leagues, but there isn’t a hotter pick up out there right now so get him while you can.

Kyle Lowry- I’m not a big fan of the dude but Aaron Brooks just went down for 4-6 weeks with a high ankle sprain so grab him while he’s available.

It has been said that success in sports is 90% mental and 10% physical performance, fantasy sports are no different. Make no mistake about it; fantasy basketball is a game of psychological warfare and if you win the mental game success will undoubtedly follow. One of my favorite tactics is to constantly and obnoxiously talk up all of the players on my team. I recently set up a league-wide email chain named “Fantasy Basketball Player of the Day”, which is pretty self-explanatory, except shockingly (sarcasm) every winner so far this season has come from my team. So every time Paul Millsap drops 20 and 10 on a foe I award him player of the day and post his stat line for everyone to see. Naturally, I receive a steady stream of abuse in the form of verbal attacks for doing this, but in the end the rest of the league sees all of Millsap’s best stat lines. Even if they know what I’m trying to do, and I would assume they do, it can’t help but increase Millsap’s perceived trade value. In a couple months when I try to do a two-for-one and trade for a superstar like Dirk or Wade you better believe I’ll be including Millsap in that deal.

Here are a couple guys to grab or keep an eye on if they are available in your league

Dorell Wright- He’s still only owned in 57% of ESPN leagues despite the fact that he is starting and playing huge minutes for the fantasy basketball sleeper factory known as the Golden State Warriors. If he’s available in your league stop reading this blog immediately and go pick him up, after that send an email to your league and tell them how bad they suck at fantasy basketball.

Omri Casspi- In deep leagues (12 teams or more) he is definitely worth a pick-up right now, in smaller leagues make sure you keep him on your radar. Casspi isn’t putting up huge numbers yet, but he played a key role in last night’s come from behind win over Toronto. It looks like the minutes will be there for Casspi, and in fantasy basketball opportunity is everything. He’ll always give you 3’s and points and he’s a high energy guy so an increase in steals and rebounds is definitely not out of the question if he can hold down the starter role in Sacramento, and let’s be honest, any weekend warrior pick-up player that can grab rim has a chance to start for the Kings.

Other guys to watch that I don’t feel like writing about

Francisco Garcia- If Casspi can’t hold it down he’s next in line to get minutes

Anthony Tolliver- Darko is doing his Darko thing, he should be headed to the bench any day now, Tolliver will benefit in a big way.

Serge Ibaka- If he isn’t already owned in your league then I’m not really sure why you are reading this, unless of course you are grading it!

Luke Ridnour- The minutes and stats will be there at least until Johnny Flynn returns.

JaVale McGee- 4 blocks a game is pretty nice, even if he isn’t contributing in other areas just yet. JaVale is a flower, give him a little time to blossom.