Trade Season Has Begun!

Alright now that we are over a month into the season you probably have a pretty decent idea about where your team stands, but the worst thing you can do in fantasy basketball is get complacent, so guess what, it is time to shake things up. Now there are two ways to go about making trades at this point in the year, if you are at the top of the league it is time to play vulture. Target the two or three worst teams in the league, they undoubtedly have a ton of underperformers and it is time to commit a little robbery. Lets say one of those teams has Brook Lopez, he is currently averaging a career low 6.1 rpg, which in all honesty is just plain pathetic for a 7-footer that gets as many minutes as he does. In his previous two seasons Lopez has averaged over 8 rpg and there is no reason that he shouldn’t end the season there again this year. It is all about pulling off the 2 for 1 in a case like this. The worst teams in your league clearly lack depth, now you will still probably have to pay close to top dollar for Lopez, but in my opinion almost any 2 for 1 is worth it when you are getting an elite guy like Lopez. Offer up your 3rd best guy and then throw in a replacement center like Emeka Okafor. Okafor is having a very nice season so far, but really, the guy is replaceable and if that is the difference between getting Lopez or not, then it is definitely worth it to pay a little extra.

On the other hand, lets say you are a team at the bottom of the league, for you it is time to play dead. Undoubtedly you are starting to get ridiculous trade requests from the vultures, and that is exactly what you want. They know you are desperate, so it is time to pit a couple owners against each other and start a bidding war. Here’s how you frame it, let both owners know that you are definitely trading one of your top guys because you need to turn the season around before it is too late. You’ll probably get a couple horrible offers from the vultures, now take those offers and embellish a little, let the other owners know you are in trade talks with another guy and he is giving a much better deal. Let’s say you have Pau Gasol, he is currently having a monster season, he is the #1 ranked player on ESPN.com’s ratings. But Bynum is going to come back in a little while, and there is no way Pau is going to continue to play huge minutes, in other words his value couldn’t be any higher right now. Target guys like Wade and Brook Lopez, these underperformers still have a great deal of value, but demand a second guy in the deal that will be a starter for you every week, maybe a guy like Eric Gordon. The best teams have depth, they can pay a little more, and if all goes well and Brook picks his numbers up while Gasol’s decline a little you’ve basically made an even trade for Gasol and gotten Eric Gordon for free.

The time is now, trade season is beginning, don’t let the other owners in the league capitalize on underperformers and leave you with the same team you had on draft day. No one drafts a perfect team, championships are won in trades like this.

The DC Duo

What do you get when you combine a breakdown of the Washington Wizards' ticking time bomb of a back-court with bad puns? This week's Late Night Sleeper blog post!

Agent Hero?

Gilbert won me the week with his 16 assist outburst on Sunday, but let’s keep in mind that he’s putting up these numbers in the absence of John Wall, who is undoubtedly THE man on the team. When Wall comes back Gilbert’s numbers will decline, but I don’t expect them to plummet. The Wizards would love to trade Gilbert, but the dude has about as much trade value as a zip-lock bag full of celery sticks in a middle school cafeteria. That leaves the Wizards in a tough spot, they have no choice but to play him in a showcase role in hopes that another team will take the bait. Gilb is finally healthy and if we have learned anything over the past four years it is that he will feel entitled to demand shots and playing time whether he deserves it or not. There is literally not one thing to like about Gilbert’s game in terms of wins/losses for an NBA team, but for your fantasy team he can help in a big way, and he comes at a cheap price. If you drafted him late like I did, there’s not much downside.

Is John “About to Hit the Rookie” Wall?

I guess if we are talking about Gilbert we should also discuss what this means for John Wall. Wall is currently averaging 18, 4, 10 with over three steals a game, those numbers qualify him under Beast status in my book, but can he keep it up? I personally tend to avoid rookies in fantasy basketball because I have a hard time seeing Wall make it through the entire season at this pace. There’s a big difference between a college schedule and the grueling 82 game NBA marathon season. Can you remember who the hot rookie to own was a year ago today? It was Brandon Jennings, who got off to a blazing start last year, averaging 22 ppg with 6 dimes in the first month of the season. For the next four months Jennings steadily declined while absolutely murdering his fantasy owners’ field goal percentage, dropping as low as .311 from the field last February. I wouldn’t expect that dramatic of a fall for Wall because he’s simply better than Jennings is and ever will be, but Wall is also currently sporting a walking boot because of a bum ankle. If I owned him I’d undoubtedly be selling high and going after a big name player with less risk.

It's Not All Smiles

So let’s flip things around this week and talk about the dudes you DON’T want on your team. Some of the following opinions may be colored by my own personal feelings about these guys, but I’ll try to keep it civil and at least somewhat related to fantasy basketball.

Rashard Lewis- Not only do I hate Rashard Lewis as a player, but in this case he actually sucks in fantasy basketball too! The funny thing is the Magic also have Ryan Anderson, who plays the same position, plays the exact same game, doesn’t defend either, but makes about $100 million less than Rashard. Everyone laughed when the Magic gave Lewis a max deal but he was able to at least partially live up to it for the first couple years, but the Magic are still just the 3^rd best team in the East (like they always are) and Rashard looks worse and worse every day. If you own him I’d doubt you could trade him for anything valuable at this point, my advice would be to wait until he strings together 3 or 4 good games (which may or may not happen) and then try to pawn him off for another guy’s 6^th or 7^th best guy. Good luck with that.

Tim Duncan- His fantasy game is about as bland as his personality and the name just doesn’t live up to expectations anymore. I have nothing but respect for Duncan (other than the fact that he is the biggest whiner in the NBA) but he’s just too old to consistently put up big numbers, and there really isn’t any incentive for him to try. The Spurs will make the playoffs and that is when Duncan will step his game up, until then he will coast, and that is just about the last thing you are looking for from a high round pick in fantasy basketball.

Blake Griffin- Ok so maybe it is surprising to see him on this list, but it is for an entirely different reason than the other players I’m talking about. I actually happen to love Blake Griffin, as does everyone else, the dude can jump out of the gym and he rebounds like a rabid beast, but the bottom line is that his fantasy value really isn’t particularly high. 16 points and 10 rebounds a game is nice, but aside from that Griffin brings absolutely nothing to the table and he’s a total liability at the free throw line. If you own him you were probably ecstatic after the first week of the season, but it is time to sell high while you still can. Give another Blake Griffin lover a whiff of his manly pheromones and rob that owner of one of his elite guys. Do it now, add in another one of your fringe starters and you might still be able to get a big name player that contributes in more categories.

An extra word of advice about injured players- Drop them! If you are currently holding on to a dude like Greg Oden or Andrew Bynum then shame on you for drafting their crippled rear-ends, it is time to cut your losses. Never draft injured guys with the plan to stash them for the long haul, it simply doesn’t pay off. In the meantime other owners are using those bench spots to pick up legit players that actually make it onto the court and you are missing out on the waiver wire gold.

Who's That Dude?

Tip of the Week: Have you ever noticed that trades tend to come in bunches? Pay attention, next time you see a name like Wade, Durant, or Nowitzki dealt in your league, invariably within the next 24 hours two other owners will pull the trigger on a smaller trade. It is as if a big trade opens the flood gates and gives license to the rest of the league to make their own moves. So let’s take advantage of one of the easily manipulated owners in your league (you know who they are, and if you don’t, look in the mirror buddy). Say you’ve been working on trading for David Lee but you can’t get the other guy to pull the trigger. Wait for the next trade to go through, and then offer to add one of your bench guys with “upside” to the mix, if you do it right a lot of the time you can seal the deal with a player you recently picked up off the waiver wire.

Here are some buy-low guys that you should be trying this move on

Nene- A minor groin injury and a couple bad games don’t scare me much, but they do scare the trigger happy owner that already feels like he wasted a pick on the sometimes injury prone center. Make your move now; his price will only get higher.

Steve Nash- Even if Nash can’t repeat last year’s numbers, he is definitely going to average more than the 7.2 assists per game he is currently putting up.

And here are some actual sleepers, including the random dude I chose as the cover man for this post

Tony Douglas- He is a true “Late Round Sleeper” that meets all our qualifications.

1) No one has heard of the dude.

2) He plays for the Knicks or Warriors (fantasy sleeper goldmines).

3) He’s getting minutes

Douglas is averaging 22 ppg over the last three games and filling up the stat sheet across the board, he is only owned in 20% of ESPN leagues, but there isn’t a hotter pick up out there right now so get him while you can.

Kyle Lowry- I’m not a big fan of the dude but Aaron Brooks just went down for 4-6 weeks with a high ankle sprain so grab him while he’s available.

It has been said that success in sports is 90% mental and 10% physical performance, fantasy sports are no different. Make no mistake about it; fantasy basketball is a game of psychological warfare and if you win the mental game success will undoubtedly follow. One of my favorite tactics is to constantly and obnoxiously talk up all of the players on my team. I recently set up a league-wide email chain named “Fantasy Basketball Player of the Day”, which is pretty self-explanatory, except shockingly (sarcasm) every winner so far this season has come from my team. So every time Paul Millsap drops 20 and 10 on a foe I award him player of the day and post his stat line for everyone to see. Naturally, I receive a steady stream of abuse in the form of verbal attacks for doing this, but in the end the rest of the league sees all of Millsap’s best stat lines. Even if they know what I’m trying to do, and I would assume they do, it can’t help but increase Millsap’s perceived trade value. In a couple months when I try to do a two-for-one and trade for a superstar like Dirk or Wade you better believe I’ll be including Millsap in that deal.

Here are a couple guys to grab or keep an eye on if they are available in your league

Dorell Wright- He’s still only owned in 57% of ESPN leagues despite the fact that he is starting and playing huge minutes for the fantasy basketball sleeper factory known as the Golden State Warriors. If he’s available in your league stop reading this blog immediately and go pick him up, after that send an email to your league and tell them how bad they suck at fantasy basketball.

Omri Casspi- In deep leagues (12 teams or more) he is definitely worth a pick-up right now, in smaller leagues make sure you keep him on your radar. Casspi isn’t putting up huge numbers yet, but he played a key role in last night’s come from behind win over Toronto. It looks like the minutes will be there for Casspi, and in fantasy basketball opportunity is everything. He’ll always give you 3’s and points and he’s a high energy guy so an increase in steals and rebounds is definitely not out of the question if he can hold down the starter role in Sacramento, and let’s be honest, any weekend warrior pick-up player that can grab rim has a chance to start for the Kings.

Other guys to watch that I don’t feel like writing about

Francisco Garcia- If Casspi can’t hold it down he’s next in line to get minutes

Anthony Tolliver- Darko is doing his Darko thing, he should be headed to the bench any day now, Tolliver will benefit in a big way.

Serge Ibaka- If he isn’t already owned in your league then I’m not really sure why you are reading this, unless of course you are grading it!

Luke Ridnour- The minutes and stats will be there at least until Johnny Flynn returns.

JaVale McGee- 4 blocks a game is pretty nice, even if he isn’t contributing in other areas just yet. JaVale is a flower, give him a little time to blossom.

The Draft Strategy

You have to crawl before you can walk and you have to be able to make a lay-up before you can shoot 3's (unless you are Andrea Bargnani), so this week we are going to cover the fundamentals of fantasy basketball draft strategy. Yes, we all want to find the diamond in the rough sleeper pick, we'll get to that eventually, but first let me ask a very basic question.

If I offered you three cheeseburgers twice a week, or two cheeseburgers four times a week, which would you take? If you are Gilbert Arenas you'd probably flash a gun and intimidate me into giving you all the cheeseburgers, but if you aren't an overrated, overpaid, ball hog with a bizarre sense of entitlement then you'd probably just take two cheeseburgers four times a week and thank me for being so generous.

So where am I going with this? Winning a fantasy basketball championship in a head-to-head league is all about having your team peak for the 3 or 4 weeks that the playoffs are going on, and winning those weeks is not about having the best players, it is about having the players that will give you the most cheeseburgers. Chauncey Billups is ranked as the 18th overall player according to ESPN's projections, he is slotted 10 picks ahead of Tyreke Evans, a similar point guard. But during the three weeks of my league's fantasy playoffs Chauncey plays a total of 9 games while Tyreke plays in 12. I suck at math so bear with me, but I'm pretty sure that means that if you carry the 1 and divide by the reciprocal of Tyreke’s Jersey number, then invert the remainder of Chauncey Billups’ shoe size, divide by two, reduce that fraction to its lowest common denominator, and then ask Matt Damon who actually wrote Good Will Hunting, you come to the conclusion that Chauncey will have to put up 133% of the stats Tyreke needs to put up in those weeks to break even. So even though Chauncey is rated higher I am definitely going to pick Tyreke ahead of him in my fantasy draft.

Know your playoff schedule and use it to your advantage because if you play in a league with people that don’t (and most people don’t) you will have a huge advantage. I’d much rather limp into the playoffs as a 5 seed and destroy the competition than stroll in as the #1 seed only to discover that Carmelo Anthony and Chris Paul have two game weeks in the first round of the playoffs.

So…. You are too lazy to go looking through the schedules for every NBA team, so am I. Here’s a quick NBA schedule grid cheat sheet that makes the job so easy that you have no excuse not to do it.

The Late Round Sleeper: Mission Statement

In this day and age fantasy sports is a multi-million dollar industry that ESPN, Yahoo, and countless other companies have turned into their cash cows, but let us never forgot that this phenomenon began in your best friend Kenny's downstairs "man den" while his unsuspecting wife was actually nurturing and caring for the children.

The mission of The Late Round Sleeper is to take a serious look at fantasy sports without taking it too seriously. The site will focus on the upcoming NBA fantasy season, where perennial sleeper candidates like Tyrus Thomas, Anthony Randolph, and Boris Diaw can make or break the success of your team and the bragging rights involved. We are looking for the guys that may have slipped through the cracks, the players with "attitude issues" who just got dealt to a run-and-gun team, and the "Upside" guys, in other words- fantasy gold.

We will break down the best weekly pick-ups, the buy-low candidates, and the waiver wire warriors that might actually be able to help your team. But most importantly, we will do all of this while respecting the "two beers deep" culture that is the essence of fantasy sports, and what makes it so entertaining and addictive.